Off she goes, Iain Oughtred's slightly foreshortened Penny Fee, at 15ft. Sails by Jeckells, spars by the wonderful Jeremy Freeland at Collars. The rest by Messrs Burke and Morgan (that's Jonny by the way...)

Friday, 11 March 2011

Met Office? They haven't the Foggiest

Become a bit obsessed with the weather up here, or rather what the Met Office think we should be getting. The truth is, for all their terrabytes and super computers, they are more often than not completely wrong.

One example. On Thursday afternoon they said we would be getting a nice, sunny-ish day on Friday. Later that same afternoon they changed their prediction and reckoned we would have snow the next day.

Meanwhile their wind directions ranged from west to south east to variable and north east, seemingly at random. Friday morning broke cold and sleaty, more or less as forecast the afternoon before, but the weather far from deteriorating, was now due to look up (a bit like what they said in the first place). Crucially, all mention of snow from midday onwards had gone, the sun would appear around 3pm and the wind, rather than from the north north east, was now predicted to be west south west!

Basically, the Met Office haven't a clue when it comes to forecasting our weather. Either that or they have a malicious streak which seeks to raise our spirits falsely with a good forecast, and then, cruelly, give us a horrible one a few hours later. Then, just when we are totally confused and depressed (and an hour or so before we get the real weather and can see for ourselves), they consult their weather stations and give us the true story. That's not a forecast defined as "to predict in advance". It's inspired guesswork.

Just admit it: you haven't the foggiest idea of what's going on up here, in which case, don't guess, just give me a bell and I'll tell you.

1 comment:

  1. My meteorology instructor used to say "The only way to forecast accurately is to forecast often".

    In other words it's not possible to give accurate weather forecasts for more than a few hours ahead.

    The Met office like to pretend otherwise, but only because not to do so would mean admitting they're knowingly taking tens (or is it hundreds) of millions of pounds of public money under false pretences.

    Great blog and beautiful boats